19 December 2016

Brooke Whittemore

Since the Soviet Union has fallen, the United States and Russia’s relationship has waxed and waned. With Donald Trump’s inauguration coming up in about a month, vowing to reset any diplomatic ties, the stage is being set for a very different bilateral relationship between the two nations. Many people are predicting a clash between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, including Bill Browder, a successful millionaire who made his money during the chaos and collapse of the Soviet Union. He believes that the two have similar characteristics which could lead to a face-off between the two. He says, “We’ll end up in a position where both these guys will be thumping their chests and staring each other down.” Browder has had his own run-ins with Putin in the past and to say that there is no love lost between them is an understatement. He blames Putin for the death of one of his Moscow leaders, who blew the whistle when his Russian business was getting a $100 million dollar shakedown by state employees. Browder also states, ”There is no diplomacy coming from Putin. He looks at how he can use his power to maximize his wealth, to stay in power and to oppress and steal from people around him.” He claims that the longer people know Putin, the better they get at understanding him. He gives the example of former President George W. Bush who famously said he’d looked into Putin’s and believed he could do business with him. The Obama administration tried their own reset when Hillary Clinton, who was then secretary of state, gave Sergei Lavrov her Russian counterpart, a symbolic red reset button. It is a logic that has lead to intervention in Ukraine and Syria and the annexation of Crimea and to untimely death of a number of Putin’s loudest critics. Wood no longer believes Putin’s denial of involvement. All of this begs the question: What will Trump, and for that matter his secretary of state pick Rex Tillerson, do when they have to choose which Putin to believe? The one they are talking to or the one whose actions drown out his words? As of now Wood is worried that like previous President- elect’s, Trump has yet to fully understand what he is up against when it comes to Putin. “The future President of the United States, it seems admires what he’s done in Syria as an expression of strength. But it isn’t really. What he has created is what I would have thought (is) ultimately a trap.” He says that Russia and the United States are serious world powers who are certainly coherent in their policies and in upholding of their interests. Browder too sees the relationship turning sour when campaign rhetoric gives way too serious talks. None of which will play well with Donald Trump who he says “Wants to be seen as a great dealmaker and a winner” which means the new president is going to feel “ripped off by Putin” sooner or later.